Little Data – Insurance, finance and digital footprints

data

General Thesis:

Cheap technology is changing everything. There’s a deluge of data being created by all economic participants. But, this time buyers, sellers and employers all participate and have access. It’s no longer just top down business infrastructure, but quickly becoming horizontal. Access is now greater than ownership. This means that in a data driven economy, areas that previously did not affect insurance and finance industries are starting to. Their biggest competitors in 5 years is more likely to come from outside their industry, as is of course any new revenue opportunities. The world in 20/20 will be one which is open source, built by crowd dynamics, collaborative, and all about the leverage of new data points created by businesses and their customers.

Specifically these changes are framed by (but not limited to) the following technologies:

Internet of Things: A world filled with traceable devices, which are added to all products and services experiences, because the technology costs are so low, they are cheaper than the packaging they come in (a few cents). By 20/20 18 billion consumer goods will be connected to the internet of things which dwarfs the internets current 3 billion human connections. This will allow insurers and consumers to de-risk and reduce cost of helping each other in a quantifiable world.

Quantified Self Movement & Gamification: Consumer are starting to use smart devices to track their human behaviour and gamify their lives to a more healthy and abundant lifestyle. Brands who participate and facilitate this movement will become indispensable partners in improved living standards in our post consumption, experiential economy.

Data Driven Insurance: Real Data versus Actuarial Estimations will change the approach to costing all forms of finance and insurance. Traditional actuarial models will be disrupted as real data replaces traditional demographic profiling of risk.

Big data & Little Data: People are starting to realise the power and economic value of their personal ‘little data’.  Entrepreneurial innovators will assist the ‘everyman’ to take control of the digital footprint and help them leverage it as an economic currency, just like we do today with our social media followings. Little data will become our personal asset and the panacea the our current privacy concerns.

Crowd Powered Finance: How powered low cost technology is empowering entrepreneurs and consumers to innovate outside of the traditional finance system. We are quickly entering Sans Nation State financial services era – that is, monetary systems without a global or national control. Innovations like Crytpo Currencies, Peer to Peer lending, the Crowd Funding will be in full force by 20/20 with disruptive potential for the traditional financial systems. A fast forward repeat of what we have seen in the media industry as the move towards a decentralised economy continues.

All these innovations are yet to be dominated by an single player, in one sense, it is the start of the start as we move beyond the social era of the internet economy, to the connection era where technology envelopes itself in every industry, not just industries whose output lives on a screen. The game is open, and future is bright for those who embrace the change. And as always, it’s not about being a technologist, but understanding how the tech can be used. And then organising and collaborating with others to make it happen.

Idea Borrowing

Some of the entrepreneurs of our time haven’t been the inventors we believe them to be. It’s not a criticism, entrepreneurship goes far beyond inventing and ideas. In fact some of our most revered entrepreneurs are simply good at cross fertilization.

Let’s take Steve Jobs for example. He didn’t invent the GUI (Graphical User Interface), the mouse, icons, paint, folders or any of the ‘user friendly’ things that Apple became famous for.

He ‘borrowed ideas’. By looking at related categories Jobs was able to adopt new thinking and bring it to his market in a way that made sense. He was a great normative thinker. The best example of Jobs in action was when he was invited into the Xerox PARC office for a study tour to ‘share knowledge’. In essence, they gave Jobs the key to their kingdom. This is where Jobs vision of the future of the personal computer grew from.

The first GUI was on a Xerox office workstation called the Alto. Closely followed by the Xerox Star in 1977 – see picture below.

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Look Familiar?

The trip to Xerox by Apple computer’s Steve Jobs in 1979 led to the graphical user interface and mouse being integrated into the Apple’s Lisa and, later, the first Macintosh.

Jobs borrowed ideas, ideas born in a photocopier company.

Ebay took the excitement and quick sale of the auction process from real estate.

Craigslist made an electronic web based newspaper classified.

So the question begs to all entrepreneurs, what new technologies, ideas or systems can we borrow from adjacent industries?

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Competitors

Competition is eternally existential. We compete for love, money, attention, fame, wealth, recognition, and sometimes, we even compete for food. Turns out humans aren’t the only species who must to compete to survive. All living things must do it. Even trees in a deep forest compete for sunlight by growing as quickly as possible forgoing width for height.

What I find most interesting about competition is how we or any being chooses to do it. When a competitor catches us unaware, they usually achieve this through  using some form of subterfuge. Like growing in a smaller segment of the market. Focusing on a neglected geography. And the really smart competitors disguise what they are doing so you don’t even see them coming. A little like Google has done to Microsoft who was overly focused on the ‘desktop’, while the world was moving to web app’s and gathering and storing of information externally.

I noticed this phenomenon first hand recently. My business was moving along swimmingly (which in this case is my tomato plantation). As you can see from the photo below. My Roma’s looked healthy and almost ready for the picking:

tomato1

But upon closer inspection a competitor had been eating away at my market for quite a long time without me noticing. Once I turned around the tomato to inspect the back side of them – I was devastated to find my competition. They caught me napping and had a very big impact on my market share. As can be seen here:

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How did they manage this?

  • The caterpillar was smart enough to attack on the reverse side out of view.
  • His color is exactly the same as the tomato proving an excellent camouflage.
  • He waited till the market was already developed (by me) and the tomatoes had a reasonable size and were worth attacking – in this case risking his life over!
  • In true terrorist fashion he penetrated the market at one entry point and ate it inside out. That is, the caterpillar was so deep inside the market, he was completely out of view.

None of this was by mistake. It has been driven by millennia of evolutionary survival and subsequent genetic coding. Nature is smart.

The implications for startups are many. When we start out to compete, the best thing we can do is replicate what nature does. Stay out of harms way. Stay small and unseen. Try and gain some momentum and size. If we’re lucky will have built our share of the market and be ensconced before anyone notices.

(FYI – I picked the tomatoes, and placed them in another location of the garden to let the caterpillars fight another day – they may just leave some seeds which will flourish next season!)

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iphone apps & mini-preneurs

Got an idea for an iphone app you can’t find?

Great – there’s like a zillion iphone app developers waiting for your business right here, and here and here.

iphone-apps

So write the brief for the app you want and can’t find, contact the developers and get it made. Get your itunes account up, choose a cheap ‘low barrier’ price, like a ‘dollar’ or so and sell that puppy. Remember it’s better to sell a $1 iphone app a lot of times than a a $5 or $10 one no times at all.

This micro-entrepreneurs opportunity is as simple as they come. Global distribution with an engaged audience – rare indeed. A classic ‘trend hijack’.

Go now – make it, sell it.

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Tell your story – ‘Quickly’

People are very time poor, or maybe just a little impatient. Regardless of which it is we have to be able to tell our story quickly.

Vanguard Investments do it in 2 seconds. Click here to see how they do it. (Watch the animation)

Even this chart below tells the story on long term ‘index’ investing. Of which Vanguard are the founding forefathers.

vanguard-story

The recent downturn is a best a ‘blip’.

How long does your startup story take to tell? Here’s a tip – we’ve got a few seconds at most.

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I could’ve been a contender

In 10 years from now many of us will look back and thought about what could’ve been. What we could have achieved if we didn’t just take the advice of others, take ‘dives for money’. If we didn’t mortgage our careers (lives?) for corporations who didn’t give a hoot about us. If we had the guts to make tough decisions and believe in ourselves.

Our choices matter a great deal more than our level of talent does. We should make choices which will have a direct impact 10 years from now.

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People Watching

If you’re an entrepreneur and you’ve never been ‘people watching’, then start up blog strongly recommends a session. For a lot of reasons it’s a cool thing all entrepreneurs should do. For one, all our revered entrepreneurs are champion trend spotters. And they spot these trends a long time before they are reported in the Sunday newspaper lift outs.

What’s next?

Go some where busy, go somewhere where there are zillions of transactions, go somewhere sans commerce, go where families hang out, go somewhere singles hangout, look for the subgroups, watch people looking at shelves in stores – guess their decision process, see if this process is the same for all or different for all, see what they wear, see how they move, how did they get there, where are they from, bring a notepad with you and write down ideas, go places you’ve never been before…. Watch people, guess their motivations, view their life in action and then we’ll be the ones gaining life experience…. Just go and watch.

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The funny thing about our world is that we are all in it every day, but very few of us are actually paying any attention to it. Step off the stage and become the director. Make it a habit to pay attention to what is going on in our world.

As entrepreneurs and marketers we are lucky. We can do our homework everywhere we go, and our start ups are the key beneficiaries.

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