A simple Amazon strategy every business can implement

Jeff Bezos Genius

The future is a pesky little thing to predict. Much of it will surprise us no matter how well versed we are in emerging technology. A lot will change 10 years from now in ways we just couldn’t imagine. But, some things won’t change, and it is easy to know what these things are. So much so that this is a key question Amazon leader Jeff Bezos bases large parts of business strategy on:

“What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?…. You can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time…. In our retail business, we know that our customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want a vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says; ‘Jeff, I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher’ [or] ‘I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’ Impossible.”

And it is clear to see that while they use technology to make these things possible, the future is predictable and something Amazon or any business can build their strategy and infrastructure around. Jeff said this 4 years ago at the Amazon Web Services forum. With 40% of that 10 year window expired, and I’d say it’s all still true. Seems he has predicted the future, just by flipping the question.

So the only question remaining for your business or startup is this: What things can you be working on that just won’t change?

Follow me on SnapChat – search ‘Sammartron’ for more business insight. Click here if on mobile to add now.

A business model for every startup

Flying Dog

Here’s a simple business model which should be built into every startup.

Ways to make money using technology which is not available today.

The possibilities of connection are changing so rapidly these days it is quite possible that the way we make money in a few years, is not even technically possible today. The startup may invent the technical possibility, or leverage an emerging possibility for the community they are building. Either way, the path is simple – startups need to ensure that their future revenue streams consider a future possibility, not just the reality of today.

Follow me on SnapChat – search ‘Sammartron’ for more business insight. Click here if on mobile to add now

Yes, we are all in the technology business

A few weeks ago the surfing world was astounded when Kelly Slater released a video of his new wave pool.

The launch of his 10 year long project to KS Wave Co, and OMG did surfers loose their minds. The reason it matters for this here blog has little to do with surfing. It has to do with technology. I would never have believed a wave this good could come from a pool. That waves I spend thousands of dollars each year chasing, could happen all day, every day. And so you now, this picture below is typically how terrible wave pools are for Surfing – A wave pool from 1985 where they once held a Pro Surfing event.

Tom Carroll in wave pool

And the reason it is now possible is not to do with machinery, it’s because of what software can do. It’s because of what we can model it before we turn soil. We are entering a phase in life where possibilities confound expectations. Where dreams from our childhood and coming to life in all manner of entertainment and industry. The future has finally arrived.

If the worlds most nature driven zen sport, surfing, can enter an artificial arena, then it’s fair to say we are all in the technology business now. It might even be time to ask yourself if that ‘thing’ you dreamed about is possible now.

And Kelly, if you’re reading – I’d be happy too buy the rights for Melbourne.

You should totally read my book – The Great Fragmentation.

 

Podcasts are a University on wheels

podcast head

After a false start in the mid 2000’s podcasting is back killing radio. For anyone who spends a fair amount of time driving, exercising, travelling or just existing as a human, it is the ultimate short cut to ‘get learned’ by some of the worlds best thinkers – University on Wheels say some.

So here are some great podcasts I literally rub my ear balls in whenever I am on the move.

My top 7 Podcasts:

  1. EconTalk with Russ Roberts – Not as highbrow as it sounds. An incredible array of topics related to business, culture and sociology. The most insightful look into our economic lives you’ll ever listen to.
  2. The James Alticher show – Mostly about entrepreneurship, technology and financial independence. He interrupts the guests a bit much, but with good thoughts & questions. Has great guests on the show.
  3. Crap Hound with Cory Doctorow – Mostly about cyber security, IoT, income disparity, privacy & surveilance, Gov policy regarding digital rights, and other important digital issues around control and the world you’re about to live in. Eye opening view of the future. One the globes sharpest minds.
  4. HBR Idea cast – Podcasts of around 20 mins. Perfect for short trips. Covers topical issues in business and management. Gets to the critical issues quickly.
  5. The Long Now with Stuart Brand – Seminars about long terms thinking. Generally a long 1 hour plus podcasts which are from Keynote speeches from the Long Now Foundation. Has the world best thinkers on key topics regarding the long term survival of humanity. Kinda heavy I know – but the topics are more ‘human and now’ than you’d expect. Everything from why stories last to can we live on Mars to the long arc of moral progress.
  6. Planet Money NPR – Great stories about all things money and finance. Super interesting stories with insights you’d never expect. Totally entertaining on the usually boring topic finance. Short podcasts too around 20 mins.
  7. Here’s the thing with Alec Baldwin – Has a great range of guests with entertaining content regarding creative and business pursuits. Lots of laughs and relaxing.

If you like hearing me rabbit on, then you can always check out the #BBB podcast (Beers Blokes and Business) which I appear on and I recent recording I did for the newly launched Future Sandwich podcast.

Oh, and if you’re wondering why podcasting has made such a massive comeback in the past couple of years, there’s probably a myriad of reasons. But here are two that spring to mind. (1) We’ve had a couple of super ‘hit’ podcasts to put it on the agenda like ‘Serial‘ and (2) I think the increased data most people now get on their phones these days removes the download it now and listen barrier. No need to plan and download at home.

Startup blog says – let your ears do the reading.

You should totally read my book – The Great Fragmentation.

Why predicting the future is more about sociology than technology

Technologies arriving by 2025

This chart above is from a new World Economic Forum report, Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact, predicts 21 dates in the future when previously unimaginable innovations will enter our daily lives, transforming the way we live and the way communities and governments function. And after perusing the report, I couldn’t help but think that the results focused too deeply on technological capabilities rather than social and economic incentive. It seems that while predicting the future is always a difficult task, every time I read such predictions, human behaviour is not considered at a deep enough level.

I disagree with most of the predictions above, but mostly for two reasons:

  1. The flawed and simplistic definitions from the past. (This is how companies get disrupted by the way, but more on that later)
  2. The lack of consideration given to how incentives shape behaviour.

Simplistic Definitions:

Report Claim: 10% of people wearing clothes connected to the internet. Reality: We are already wearing technology. Our phone is a device we have been wearing as clothing for nearly 10 years. The definition given in the report doesn’t serve the function of why you’d wear technology – it’s too limited. It’s a yesterday definition.

Report Claim: Over 50% of internet traffic to homes to be for appliances & devices. Reality: The internet of things (IoT) in the home will be at least 10 times the size of humans connected, current estimates are for 50 billion items. So in pure connections it will be way bigger than their estimate. But as a portion of traffic and bandwidth it will still be small compared to human generated internet traffic. Most IoT devices will have simple sensors and awareness functions through connected nodes, which in real terms generate very little traffic as long as we maintain Net Neutrality. I’d also add that we are already generating more than 50% of web traffic through home connected devices – aren’t TV’s, smart phones and laptops in the home ‘devices’? Again the way things are defined mislead.

Report Claim: First city of over 50,000 people with no traffic lights. Reality: We already have hundreds of cities around the world of more than 50,000 people without a road rule in sight, let alone traffic lights. Seriously, have any of these people behind the report ever been outside of the confines of Davos or their Ivy League Learning Institute? China, India, Indonesia, Africa, Eastern Europe and South America all have cities that fit this definition today. Another example that the world view of the economically fortunate is often myopic and first world centric.

Report Claim: 1st 3D printed production car by 2025 Reality: At volume this will not make sense, but it also depends on what they mean by ‘Production’. If less than 10,000 units then this is a clear ‘No’ as the industrial production line has advantages 3D printing will never have, an undisputed fact among 3D printing experts. While many parts of cars will come from printers, the entire production process will not. In fact, they key benefit of 3D printing is the exact opposite of ‘production efficiency’, it’s about customisation. They’re missing the reason.

Ironically, the reason many companies get disrupted through technology is how they define their business. They define things in terms of what they sell, and not the problems they solve. Technology often unveils new ways to solve old problems, which renders yesterdays logistics and infrastructure outdated. 

Incentives & Social Considerations

Report Claim: First Robotic Pharmacist will arrive by 2025. Reality: We already don’t need pharmacists and it is largely the strength of their government lobby that keeps them putting little labels on little bottles. There is no economic incentive for the pharmacists to replace themselves, and so I doubt they’ll let it happen. If this incentive existed, they’d already be selling medicine in grocery stores. If however, the report is referring to 3D printed medicine, well the FDA approved that in August this year.

Report Claim: 5% of consumer products printed in 3D by 2025. Reality: While I think 3D printers will be in a majority of homes, it’s still like 1975 was for personal computers. An entire infrastructure of software, materials and socialisation around the industry needs to be created. The opportunity is really in platforms to support the potential of 3D printing – read here, selling shovels, not finding gold nuggets. But let’s add the social reality to the mix. We are more than 20 years into the World Wide Web and e-commerce is still only 7% of US retail sales. And this is more evolutionary and easier to adjust to socially than 3D printing items is. This tells us the truth more than any predictions will.

Report Claim: First AI machine on a corporate board of Directors by 2025. Reality: As per the pharmacists being a Board Member is not a question of need and decision making ability, it’s a question of power, influence & gettin’ paid. The incentive for board members to replace themselves, is really not there. If someone does it, and they will, it will be a mainly be about company PR.

Report Claim: Driverless cars will represent 10% of all cars on US roads. Reality: This number will be significantly higher, maybe even higher than 50%. This is true for a few reasons. Firstly, the cost of self driving cars will be a lot lower than people expect. Because cars are now rolling computers, the same pricing dynamics now apply. Costs decline while performance increases exponentially. I’ve already written about why every car on the road will be electric in 10 years, and when we add things like; the ability to watch movies or sleep while travelling; having an extra drink after work on a Friday night, putting your car to work to earn money while you’re not using it (if indeed you own one); and not having to pay insurance for a self driver, then the incentives for self drive put this in the smart phone category – we curve jump to it as soon as it’s available.

The problem with the report, was in my view, that it was done by asking opinions and averaging them out. A bit like designing something by committee. You end up with well, average results which probably don’t reflect the real views of any individual who was asked.

You should totally read my book – The Great Fragmentation.

Future Lab – Q & A

Future Lab

I was recently asked by the super clever Future Lab team of LS:N Global to do an interview on a few topics including: The New Australian Consumer, Crowd Finishing or Pre- Hacking (a theme in my book) The Sharing Economy (A former startup I had rentoid.com was early in this space), Reverse Retail, and Innovation via Skunk Works.

While writing up some thoughts in my note pad, I thought it would make a good blog entry. And then I wrote ‘blog this’ on the first page of my notes. And that is exactly what I have done – literally. It will take some interpretation (hand writing, typos, order) as it is just a mind stream of half sentences, but often the unfinished nature of things is what makes them valuable.

Screen Shot 2015-02-13 at 8.29.36 pmq2Screen Shot 2015-02-13 at 8.29.49 pmScreen Shot 2015-02-13 at 8.30.28 pm

Screen Shot 2015-02-13 at 8.30.10 pmq1

 New Book – The Great Fragmentation – out now!

4 mind blowing presentations on the future

I’ve recently watched a few presentations which really below my mind. Re-shaped my thinking on the next iterations of the technology revolution. Most interestingly, they all focus on independent systems, peer to peer and the end of the middle.

  1. Jeremy Rivkin – The zero marginal cost society.
  2. Mike Hearn – The trade net.
  3. Albert Wenger – World in Transition. (Why GDP decline is inevitable)
  4. Philip Evans – How data will transform business.

These talks aren’t short, but there aren’t any shortcuts in understanding what our future world might look like. I say, watch these instead of TV – you’ve got the time, it’s really all about how you allocate it.

twitter-follow-me13