In terms of financial wealth there is an equation which determines the amount money people acquire over their lifetime. And while monetary wealth is only a small part of living a life of great wealth (I prefer the 12 enduring riches) it is certainly worth knowing this equation and applying it to our daily economics. In a modern society a financial existence is unavoidable, and so it make sense to keep tis equation in mind. So here is the Wealth Equation:
(Income – Expenses) x Investment = Wealth
When we look at it like this in such simple terms, it reveal the current path we are on in the most immediate way. We know if we are spending too much. We know if we are not investing at all or in great enough quantity. What’s interesting is that the first element in the equation ‘income’ is not nearly as important as the second two. When we invest in a startup we are sacrificing the size of first number to go big on the investment multiple. Higher risk and higher reward. There are also many examples of people who became rich with low incomes, frugal spending habits and consistent long term investing. It’s all a game of risk tolerance, time and desired reward. One thing for sure is that wealth is impossible when expenses are greater than income. The important thing to know is which path we are chasing before we being the journey.
When we hear about startups that have gone on to be huge successes the mind often gravitates to all those early investors. Those who had a seat at the table in the angel rounds, those who knew the founders and got in early enough to make some serious money. It’s a natural reaction when companies go on to reach the unicorn level. It is true that people who get in early always make more money. Late money often pays a premium as future expectations (when positive) are priced into the investment.
But there is actually a way to become an early investor even when you are late to the party. The way to do it, is to be a long investor.
If we invest long, then by default we arrive early.
When we invest in something for the long haul, we eventually become an early investor. Even if the investment vehicle was well established when we arrived and got involved. If we stay long enough the price becomes cheap through the dual benefits of inflation & compounding. Just ask your parents what price they bought their first house for and you’ll see the relationship between long and early investing. It also works for quality stocks too. While very few people indeed got to invest in Google before their IPO, those who bought the stock on the open market once the stock was publicly traded would have made more than 6 times their original investment in 10 years.
When we start to invest in 10 year plus timelines all manner of investments from property to index funds provide outsized returns. And while we may not be clever enough to invest in something that grows quickly, we can be smart enough to invest in something long enough for it to become early.
Had a few ideas in my mind for blog posts. But thought I’ll just soundbite them now and go deep later:
1. Selling Potatoes: Startup ideas are often far too clever. Often they represent what is technically possible, rather than what is technically needed. I keep coming back to the idea of selling potatoes. That is, selling something demand already exists for. If we do this, we can stop wasting resources trying to creating demand. Instead we can just do a better job connecting and serving the existential market. Buy for price X and sell for X2. I’m wondering why a ‘potato’ business is rarely considered by aspiring entrepreneurs. We ought resist the temptation to 3D print ceramic fur balls for imaginary cats.
2. Market Validation: Real market validation must be with strangers, not colleagues. If it’s an online business, then validation can’t be done in person. If it’s a physical business then validation can’t be done on line. We ought match the real world. Real market validation should involve money, and avoid surveys.
3. Size & Attitude: The bigger the company the harder it is to maintain a cool attitude. When companies go public, their DNA changes. It’s just a fact we ought accept. At this point founders don’t care, they’ve already made bank. When our favourite companies get big it is inevitable we will suffer from a little bit of startup nostalgia.
4. Business Model & Problem Solution: I often get pitched startups that have a great business model with no real human problem. Or a solution to a human problem which struggles to find a business model. Our chances of success increase dramatically when we have both. We should work hard on having both of these elements when conceiving our next startup.
5. Quiet Self Esteem: It is what we are doing when no one is actually looking that matters. The actions we take that only we will ever know about. This is what we should focus on.
6. Half Baked Ideas: These are the best ideas to play with in the short term. It means we are in the kitchen experimenting. It doesn’t mean we should try and sell these cookies at the market, but we should always throw a few new recipes in the oven.
7. What VC’s Really Invest In: Justifiable failure. They don’t aim to fail, but before they invest a dime they know they will get it wrong more than 9 times out of ten. They’ll never admit this, but they are only ever investing in what will sound like a good bet to their partners. So that when it does fail (and it will more than 90% of the time) it is justifiable to those who stumped up the money. Hence, when seeking capital all we need be is justifiably worth the risk.
Being involved in the startup scene, or any business environment, there is a constant pull between the forces of production. A pull for power and control. The desire for one party to feel as though they are the input that matters, the major resource of creating something cool, desired and valuable. The idea creator, versus the coder, versus the salesman, versus the marketer, versus the capital provider… they all have a unique and special relationship with the output that makes them rightly feel as though they are the input that really matters. The input that makes it all possible.
But here’s an allegory worth considering.
We plant the seed of a lemon tree. We place it in the soil. We ensure it’s in a place that will receive enough sunlight. We water it frequently. We give it mulch and fertilizer. We stake it for stability to avoid the strong winds from breaking it. We attend to it daily. We are patient. We hope it bears fruit… Actually, we are certain it will bear fruit. For this belief enables us to find the energy to keep attending to our investment.
So what is more important? The seed, the soil, the nutrients, the sun, the water or the attention? None of them.
Without all of it, there will be none of it.
Instead of making claims to being the catalyst of creation, we should be thankful that we are part of a rich eco-system. A system from which he output we can all benefit from.
If we get up early when nobody is looking.
If we go to the gym when nobody is looking.
If we read the books when nobody is looking.
If we attend the night classes and seminars when nobody is looking.
If we tend the garden when nobody is looking.
If we save our income when nobody is looking.
If we build our prototype when nobody is looking.
If we knock on doors when nobody is looking
If we work hard when nobody is looking…
So long as ‘we’ are looking, is all that matters. If we do it for long enough, eventually the yield from silent and lonely work appears for others to see, and most often, they wonder ‘when’ we did it.
I bumped into friend who recently had a successful exit to a tech start up. One thing that I have really looked onto with envy is his ability to throw the old model out and start a fresh. In fact, he did it more frequently and with more haste than most people I know. if it wasn’t working he moved on to an entirely new idea, or made a quick pivot onto the sticky good parts of the concept.
Turns out this process has worked for him.
I’ve been more of a stay the course kind of guy. This comes from my general long term philosophy on when it comes both investing and how to live life. I’ve recently wondered how much this has held me back in startup land – while acknowledging it has worked very well for me financially. But what I’m starting to realise now is the difference between pivoting from an idea as opposed to pivoting the process. And that I can remain true to my ethics so long as I don’t confuse the former with the latter.
The course is the process, the pivot is the direction.
A startup blog regular – Josh Moore has been asking for as post on Property Investing. Which like anything can be treated like a startup. It’s a big topic with a million books on it. But I have had a side interest in it for some time. So here are some tips on stuff that I think is worth knowing when investing in property. A bit of a 101 guide:
- Property returns on average about 10%. Which is quite similar to the share market on.
- Banks will lend much more money for property investments due to lower volatility than shares.
- You should buy investment properties that you, yourself would like to live in.
- Land goes up in value. Concrete and air does not increase in value.
- Period buildings (unique styles, historical) have higher capital growth than the average property.
- Rental returns are usually below 5% per annum.
- Property investment can be a quicker path to wealth than shares due to leverage (borrowing money).
- Getting someone to manage a property costs about 7% of the rent per week. (so you wont have to fix toilets)
- You should always allow for 6 weeks a year vacancy on rental properties.
- High capital growth properties & areas, tend to have lower rental yields.
- High yield properties tend to have low capital growth.
- Areas going through gentrification usually have greater capital growth.
- A rental guarantee is a lie – the rent for the guarantee period is usually built into the selling price.
- Auctions are invented by real estate agents who want it to sell quick to get their money.
- Homes on busy roads have a higher turnover of renters and reduced yield.
- Homes near water (river, beach, lake) grow faster and fetch a premium.
- Tax benefits of property investment in Australia are a significant advantage.
- You can draw out profits (capital gain) from a property that has grown in value and not pay tax on it
- You can buy insurance against tenants in case they damage your house (Landlord Insurance).
- Investors should choose between yield or capital growth when investing.
- Capital gains tax on selling is 50% lower if you’ve held the property for over 12 months.
- Property investing is very dependent on government policy, technological change, and infrastructure.
- The key to investing is compound growth. Trading removes the power of compounding.
- Trading properties & developing, is not investing, they are more like running businesses.
- Trading properties is expensive – acquisition usually costs between 6-9% of market value.
- Disposing of property usually costs around 3-5% of market value.
- The property market can go through long periods of sustained stagnation, 10% returns is 100 year+ average.
- Buying properties off the plan is risky. The saving in stamp duty can be a false friend.
- Mortgage insurance is for the bank, not the mortgage holder.
- The word mortgage is French, meaning; An engagement until death.
- I believe that property is a get rich slow category
- The biggest land holder on earth is ‘The Catholic Church’
Hope this helps getting you off and running in your property ventures. Good authors on the subject include; Jane Somers and Dolf De Roos.